May 7, 2021

Daily Market Risk

Market Focus

Stocks climbed as data showing the world’s largest economy is strengthening overshadowed inflation worries, with investors awaiting Friday’s jobs report. The dollar retreated.

The S&P 500 closed near session highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record. China’s shares traded in New York briefly extended losses after Bloomberg News reported the Biden administration is likely to preserve limits on U.S. investments in certain companies from the Asian nation. In late trading, Beyond Meat Inc. slumped as the maker of plant-based protein products reported disappointing sales, and Peloton Interactive Inc. whipsawed as investors assessed its results.

Applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance fell last week to a fresh pandemic low as labor-market conditions continued to improve and the economy reopened more broadly. Separate data highlighted a rebound in productivity in the first quarter as the pace of output exceeded a pickup in hours worked. Economists predict the upcoming employment report will show the U.S. added about 1 million jobs in April.

Main Pairs Movement:

The greenback weakened versus most Group-of-10 currency peers as U.S. 10-year yields remained steady ahead of data Friday forecast to show employment growth in America soared. The Canadian dollar climbed to the highest since 2017 as metals helped to boost an index of commodities to a fresh 2015 high. Ten-year U.S. yields little changed at ~1.56%; NFP forecast for gain of 1m.

USD/CAD -0.7% to 1.2184; touched 1.2181, lowest since Sep. 18, 2017; higher gold, silver helped to buoy loonie. Options in loonie remain active amid call interest. Overnight volatility in USD/CAD hit ~9.77%, highest since early January on a closing basis, ahead of the nation’s employment data, also scheduled for Friday, that is expected to show loss of about 150k jobs in the month.

GBP/USD down 0.1% to 1.3891; BOE slowed its emergency bond-buying and signaled it’s on course to end that crisis support later this year. EUR/USD +0.5% to 1.2060; poised for the first gain in three sessions; shared currency supported by cross-related buying and interest in short-dated euro calls.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber retreated yesterday loomy amid fueled by macroeconomic data from the E.U and U.S. which boosted risk sentiment, helped euor dollat to advance, currently trading at 1.206 that wipe out yesterday fail. For futher eco-data driven, euro holding a bull expectation to an extension ahead of NFP. For technical aspect, RSI indicator shows 58 figures, suggesting a bullish momentum at least for short term. On average price view, 15-long SMA turned ascending slope and 60-long SMA turned it slope to teeny-tiny upside in day market.

We foresee market will continue whipsaw or choppy in a range between first support and resistance or even continue day gain traction further. On up way, if position breakthrough 1.207 level, we eye on next couple resistance of upside. Of course, the first immediately is on 1.199-1.2 around and 1.192 following.

Resistance: 1.207, 1.2105, 1.215

Support: 1.199, 1.19

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold rallied to 2-month-long peak as seems bearish momentum had a correction to test short position. Gold once ramp of to daily high at 1816 level then slightly resume position to nearly market close, trading at 1814.7. For RSI side, indicator shows 72.5 figures which suggest over bought sentiment base on 4 hour interval. On the other hands, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are shifting it sluggish movement to acending momentum.

At current stage, it seems market pricing for bullish trade while gold market without any cap pressure. However, we verdict that soared up rapidly in short term market could motivate take profit momentum. Therefore, for bull favour, first immediately downside support at 1812.8 and pyschological level at 1800 will be follow.

Support: 1812.8, 1800, 1760

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie gain a downside victory intraday as it sucessively extended bearish momentum in recently amid spectacular economic data trigger the risk-on mode to commodities-linked currencies, trading at 1.2158 which record-setting low in nearly 3 year. Meanwhile, an exceptional decrease in U.S. oil inventories didn’t pump up the price which holding beneath 65 level where comfort at 64.88 as of writing. However, pan-indistrial metal is constantly in gain traction. For RSI side, indicator shows 16 figures which represent market is on an over bought sentiment.

Overall, we foresee market will continue it downside movement as bearish momentum is still on favor traction. On slid way, we expect sell position will incent strong take profit on psychological level at 1.21.

Resistance: 1.2264, 1.238, 1.2491

Support: 1.21

Economic Data