November 3, 2021

Market Focus

The relentless climb in stocks pushed major U.S. benchmarks to their historical highs just a day ahead of the Fed’s policy meetings. The rally of the stock was underpinned by the better-than-expected corporate earnings results. S&P 500 rallied 0.37% to 4630.65, Dow Jones went up 0.39% to 36052.63, while the Nasdaq rose more modestly, only 0.34% weighed by a drop in Tesla (TSLA) after CEO Elon Musk downplayed the expected impact of a deal with car rental giant Hertz. Investors watched with optimism as more corporate earnings results exceeded expectations and defied concerns over ongoing supply chain constraints, shortages and cost pressures.

Younger children across the U.S. are now eligible to receive Pfizer Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine, after the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention granted the final clearance needed for shots to begin.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky recommended the vaccine for children from 5 to 11 years old. The decision ushers in a new phase in the U.S. pandemic response, widening access to vaccines to some 28 million more people at the same time that Americans who received shots earlier in the pandemic are lining up for booster doses.

Boosting by the good news, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) surged 4.15% during the Wall Street trading, closing the day at 45.45.

Main Pairs Movement:

The greenback strengthened against most of its major rivals, only stable against the Japanese Yen, which has depreciated too much in the past several weeks. The AUD and the GBP were the worst performers, the first hit by a dovish RBA statement, the second hit by Brexit jitters and uncertainty related to the Bank of England, scheduled to meet this week. AUD/USD trades around 0.7420 while GBP/USD hovers near 1.3600.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1580, with demand for the shared currency undermined by Markit´s final readings of its October Manufacturing PMIs. The German index was downwardly revised to 57.8 from 58.2, while that for the Union was confirmed at 58.3, below the preliminary estimate of 58.5.

Commodities shed some ground but held within familiar levels. Spot gold settled at $1,788 a troy ounce while WTI and Brent trade around $83.00 and $83.60 a barrel respectively.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The pair GBP/USD declined on Tuesday, preserving its bearish momentum and falls for the third straight day. The pair was trading lower in early Asian session and started to see heavy selling after American session began. GBP/USD stays in negative territory amid stronger US dollar across the board, as the risk-off market sentiment underpinned the safe-haven US dollar. Investors now await the critical monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the BOE meeting. On top of that, concerns about the UK and France spar over the fishing rights in the post-Brexit transition rules keep weighing on the cable.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 35 figures as of writing, suggesting bear movement ahead. For the MACD indicator, the negative histogram also indicates a possible downward trend for the pair. If we take a look at the Bollinger Bands, the price is sitting between the moving average and the lower band, which means that the bearish momentum is likely to persist. In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as the pair is heading to test the 1.3570 support.

Resistance: 1.3751, 1.3835, 1.3913

Support: 1.3570, 1.3412

AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The pair AUD/USD tumbled on Tuesday, surrounding by strong selling pressure all day amid dovish RBA. After the central bank Governor Phillip Lowe said that it was still “likely to take some time” for inflation to sustainably return to its target, the falling short-term Australian government bond yields dragged the pair down to weekly low. On top of that, the stronger US dollar is also hurting the pair, as the downbeat market mood weighed on global stocks and the riskier Aussie. AUD/USD was last seen trading at 0.7533, posting a 0.21% gain for the day.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 29 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair is in oversold zone now, investors should be aware of a trend reversal. Looking at the Bollinger Bands, price is moving out of the bands so a strong trend continuation can be expected. In conclusion, we think market will be bearish as the pair just dropped below the previous support, and now it’s heading to test the 0.7379 support.

Resistance: 0.7478, 0.7556

Support: 0.7379, 0.7324, 0.7226

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

After ending in the negative territory yesterday, the pair USD/CAD rebounded on Tuesday and moved towards 1.240 area. The pair is currently flirting with the 1.2400 level, up about 0.28% on the day. USD/CAD was supported by stronger US dollar across the board and falling oil prices. Market focus now shifts to the OPEC+ and Fed meetings, as most analysts remain bullish on oil prices amid the rebound in global oil demand. On top of that, Canadian jobs data is scheduled to release this Friday, which is critical for early BoC rate hikes expectations.

For technical aspect, RSI indicator 55 figures as of writing, suggesting tepid bull movement ahead. As for the Bollinger Bands, price crossed above the moving average and keep climb upward, therefore, the upper band becomes the profit target. In conclusion, we think market will be bullish as the pair is trying to re-test the 1.2431 resistance, a break above that level will open the door for additional near-term profits.

Resistance: 1.2431, 1.2499, 1.2648, 1.2775

Support: 1.2288, 1.2157

Economic Data